Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb69d…7678 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$94 (+6%) realized +$96 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$347
7 days+$32
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$60
other 18% −$69
crypto 6% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -4.2% -13.3% 19% 19% -7.0%
≤30d 41 +14.4% +3.5% 24% 24% -5.1%
≤90d 41 +14.4% +3.5% 24% 24% -5.1%
all 41 +14.4% +3.5% 24% 24% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 24% -5.1%
10% -6.4% 24% -14.2%
15% -15.4% 22% -22.5%
20% -23.7% 22% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$28 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 31
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage15d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 34¢ 32¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$101 +982%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 +$22 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$90 +874%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $66 +$269 +404%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$80 +79%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$151 +148%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $112 −$110 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $163 −$53 -33%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $102 −$94 -92%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $129 +$43 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$168 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $51 +$30 +58%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $36 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 18h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $51 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $11 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 19h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 19h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 58¢ $59 20h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $7 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $37 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 29h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 29h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 29h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $10 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $1 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $2 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $7 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.05 · official $38.05 (match) · 75 history records