Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B6 0xb69d…7fb3 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$65 (+7%) realized +$67 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%31W / 76L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$157
other 31% −$55
crypto 4% −$13
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -39.1% -44.9% 29% 29% -23.2%
≤30d 79 -9.6% -18.2% 27% 27% +5.1%
≤90d 107 -10.4% -18.9% 29% 29% -0.3%
all 107 -10.4% -18.9% 29% 29% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 29% -0.3%
10% -26.7% 28% -9.8%
15% -33.7% 28% -18.5%
20% -40.2% 28% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses31 / 76
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)107 / 116
History coverage74d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$8 +82%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$19 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$17 -57%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $20 +$28 +140%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$25 +123%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$22 +109%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 −$1 -5%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 +$12 +374%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -77%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 $0 +15%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 +$18 +595%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 29¢ $5 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 7d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $20 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.03 · official $68.03 (match) · 177 history records