Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb69e…85c2 other 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+12%) realized +$12 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$33
sports 4% −$11
world 3% +$7
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -16.6% -24.6% 60% 60% -9.0%
≤30d 5 -16.6% -24.6% 60% 60% -9.0%
≤90d 5 -16.6% -24.6% 60% 60% -9.0%
all 5 -16.6% -24.6% 60% 60% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 60% -9.0%
10% -31.8% 40% -17.8%
15% -38.4% 20% -25.7%
20% -44.4% 20% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)5 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 26¢ 60¢ $16 $36 +$20 (+130%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $28 $25 −$3 (-10%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+45%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 34¢ 15¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lionel Messi attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 57m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 59m
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 1h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 25¢ $21 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium win on 2026 BUY $2 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $2 5h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $8 5h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 5h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi BUY $0 6h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 6h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY $10 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $15 6h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY $1 22h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 22h
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 34¢ $10 23h
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 26¢ $7 23h
Will Tunisia concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 26¢ $9 23h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.28 · official $298.28 (match) · 40 history records