Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb69e…d1ba crypto 568 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (198 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,182 (+37%) realized +$5,187 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%230W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day198.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$274
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (198 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 390 -23.4% -30.7% 38% 29% -10.4%
≤30d 564 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 30% -11.3%
≤90d 564 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 30% -11.3%
all 564 -21.0% -28.5% 41% 30% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 30% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 17% -19.8%
15% -41.6% 10% -27.5%
20% -47.3% 7% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$5,187
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses230 / 334
Open positions3
Markets (closed)564 / 568
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day198.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $45 $48 +$3 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-11%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$12 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $28 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $179 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $47 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $100.10 (match) · 3500 history records