Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6a1…ab16 other 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$621 (+14%) realized +$379 · open +$242
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%88W / 72L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$261
14 days+$98
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$405
sports 32% +$123
other 29% +$96
crypto 4% −$20
weather 1% −$1
world 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +1.0% -8.6% 68% 59% +2.0%
≤30d 100 -19.6% -27.3% 49% 45% -3.4%
≤90d 160 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 52% +0.0%
all 160 -3.5% -12.7% 55% 52% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 52% +0.0%
10% -21.1% 46% -9.6%
15% -28.7% 41% -18.3%
20% -35.7% 33% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$379
Unrealized+$242
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses88 / 72
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)160 / 175
History coverage70d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Yes 36¢ 84¢ $168 $393 +$225 (+134%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $173 $190 +$17 (+10%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 81¢ 91¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 46¢ 52¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $24 $28 +$4 (+16%)
Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 59¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+40%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+70%)
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30? No 46¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 71¢ 57¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-64%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $18 $3 −$15 (-83%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $571 +$36 +6%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +38%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$8 +54%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 25 $10 +$8 +83%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $17 +$15 +90%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $108 +$72 +67%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $35 +$18 +50%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 +$13 +93%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$35 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $45 −$45 -99%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 $0 +40%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$21 +83%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $28 −$28 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 +$5 +76%
Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Brazil vs Haiti Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $151 +$30 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $16 +$1 +9%
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $30 +$5 +16%
Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $122 +$29 +24%
Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $393 +$91 +23%
Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? Jun 19 $108 +$35 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $91 +$16 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $39 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $30 +$15 +50%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 +$10 +63%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-06? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $13 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $608 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 77¢ $39 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $221 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $350 1h
Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the BUY No 46¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 22h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 25h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 25h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $1 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 52¢ $17 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $15 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $108 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $35 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $14 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $7 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $28 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 5d
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 BUY No 46¢ $26 6d
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election BUY Yes 78¢ $24 6d
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $800.14 · official $800.14 (match) · 410 history records