Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb6a6…0ef3 world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2
politics 21% +$1
other 11% $0
economics 8% $0
weather 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.6% -9.0% 60% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.9%
all 25 +1.9% -7.8% 56% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 8% -9.0%
10% -16.7% 4% -17.7%
15% -24.7% 4% -25.7%
20% -32.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.79 per $1 lost it wins $11.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage393d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $69 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $72 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 23 $1 +$1 +41%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $1 $0 -12%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Sejong (세종) in the 2025 Korean Presidential ele Jun 02 $27 $0 +2%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on June 6? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Jun 01 $54 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran before June? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Trump renames Persian Gulf to "Arabian Gulf" in May? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or higher on May May 25 $29 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 25 $2 $0 +12%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $35 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 5h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 70¢ $31 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $4 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $34 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $35 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $17 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $17 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $34 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 67¢ $38 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $37 8d
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening SELL Yes $0 332d
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening SELL Yes $1 361d
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening SELL Yes $1 361d
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1 364d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL Yes $1 379d
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 SELL Yes $0 379d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records