Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:20:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6a8…b1f7 sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$2,405 (-12%) realized −$3,682 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%133W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$232
14 days−$424
30 days−$3,893
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$2,139
sports 36% −$232
other 13% −$1,300
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -26.3% -33.3% 37% 36% -22.7%
≤30d 330 -21.6% -29.0% 32% 31% -33.7%
≤90d 402 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 32% -29.2%
all 402 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 32% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 32% -29.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 31% -36.0%
15% -41.9% 29% -42.2%
20% -47.6% 26% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$34 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$3,682
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses133 / 269
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions5
Markets (closed)402 / 407
History coverage33d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Yes 14¢ 11¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-21%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 49¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Parry Parry 43¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Boisson vs Sierra Boisson 39¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Geneva Open: Taylor Fritz vs Alexei Popyrin Taylor Fritz 28¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Mirra Andreeva vs. Sorana Cirstea: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 42¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek Swiatek 65¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Jannik Sinner vs. Andrey Rublev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -95%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $34 +$23 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$5 +99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$3 -55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $59 −$39 -66%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $27 +$35 +126%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 +$26 +60%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$13 +44%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $19 −$9 -46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $29 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$20 +94%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$5 -20%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$17 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$6 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$52 +112%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Edin Džeko: 2+ shots Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$32 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$7 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$8 +53%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$16 +107%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$13 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $15 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves SELL Carolina Alves 69¢ $33 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Carolina Alves 51¢ $25 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $7 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $57 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $19 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $15 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $9 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $5 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $16 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $3 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $6 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 15¢ $18 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $19 8h
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8h
Jamal Musiala: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $19 9h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $22 9h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $62 9h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $40 12h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $27 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.81 · official $38.81 (match) · 881 history records