Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:41:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ab…178d other 163 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,805 (-16%) realized −$2,441 · open −$364
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%33W / 114L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$258
7 days+$518
14 days+$1,064
30 days+$1,109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,413
other 45% −$1,447
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +12.9% +2.2% 21% 21% +5.7%
≤30d 100 +13.9% +3.1% 24% 24% +0.8%
≤90d 121 +3.6% -6.3% 23% 23% -12.3%
all 147 -1.4% -10.8% 22% 22% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 22% -23.3%
10% -19.3% 22% -30.7%
15% -27.1% 22% -37.4%
20% -34.3% 22% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$271 vs −$100 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized−$2,441
Unrealized−$364
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses33 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions9
Markets (closed)147 / 163
History coverage132d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $610 $605 −$5 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals Yes 4¢ 0¢ $73 $1 −$72 (-99%)
João Félix: 2+ goals Yes 5¢ 0¢ $74 $1 −$73 (-99%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-98%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 15¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
João Félix: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $140 +$355 +254%
England leading at halftime? Jun 27 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $29 +$258 +890%
Amadou Onana: 1+ goals Jun 27 $0 $0 -97%
Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $0 $0 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 26 $37 −$36 -97%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $43 +$246 +566%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $135 −$135 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 25 $132 +$64 +48%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $150 +$200 +133%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $100 +$100 +100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $59 −$58 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $75 −$75 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $136 −$136 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $48 +$352 +732%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $136 −$35 -25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $45 +$454 +1010%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $46 +$229 +497%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $148 −$148 -100%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $56 −$55 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $63 −$62 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $229 +$266 +116%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $133 −$130 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $617 0m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 14m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: D BUY 9¢ $50 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY 27¢ $100 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $36 1h
João Félix: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $54 2h
João Félix: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $17 2h
João Félix: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
João Félix: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $12 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $29 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ goals BUY Yes 4¢ $34 2h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $62 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $44 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $495 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $104 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $0 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $0 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $20 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.59 · official $656.26 · 622 history records