Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6ac…6b83 sports 453 markets active 0h ago coverage 703d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,221 (+5%) realized +$7,157 · open −$936
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%179W / 266L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$274est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$1,196
14 days−$1,196
30 days−$1,208
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$6,098
politics 30% +$17,429
other 24% −$1,692
crypto 9% −$1,881
world 2% −$955
tech 1% −$1,317
economics 0% −$355
finance 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 42% -15.5%
≤30d 98 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 278 -26.7% -33.6% 36% 35% -36.5%
all 445 -18.4% -26.2% 40% 38% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -5.0%
10% -33.3% 36% -14.1%
15% -39.7% 31% -22.4%
20% -45.6% 27% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$150 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

703d coverage
Net worth$1,764
Realized+$7,157
Unrealized−$936
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses179 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$274
Open positions7
Markets (closed)445 / 453
History coverage703d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 28¢ $1,595 $825 −$770 (-48%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 50¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 40¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $255 $86 −$169 (-66%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $746 −$504 -68%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,494 −$1,745 -50%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,006 +$1,375 +69%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $81 +$29 +36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,236 +$530 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $113 +$70 +62%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$24 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,003 +$491 +49%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $76 −$6 -8%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$33 -66%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$25 +99%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $25 +$48 +188%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 +$69 +91%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $51 +$33 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 +$65 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $112 −$112 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $25 +$31 +121%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $85 +$102 +120%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,361 +$964 +41%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $187 −$154 -82%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $547 −$446 -82%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $480 +$186 +39%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $76 +$24 +32%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $252 19m
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $254 20m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $254 20m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $248 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $243 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $247 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Co BUY 17¢ $102 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $250 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $1,749 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 4h
Portugal to win the second half? SELL Yes 59¢ $45 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $350 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $360 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $365 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $370 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $375 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $192 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $380 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $186 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $256 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $581 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 6h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 20h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,763.71 · official $1,763.71 (match) · 1526 history records