Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:23:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb6ae…de4c crypto 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$314 (-5%) realized −$360 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%45W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$178
world 19% −$16
other 18% −$61
sports 13% −$70
weather 4% +$22
finance 2% −$28
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +17.3% +6.2% 50% 50% +16.8%
≤30d 10 +17.3% +6.2% 50% 50% +16.8%
≤90d 68 -28.6% -35.4% 38% 32% -22.8%
all 92 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 41% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 41% -15.0%
10% -29.3% 38% -23.2%
15% -36.2% 32% -30.6%
20% -42.4% 23% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$30 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$360
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses45 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)92 / 101
History coverage238d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 72¢ $198 $214 +$16 (+8%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 74¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? No 58¢ 0¢ $232 $0 −$232 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? No 53¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $28 +$15 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $29 +$47 +165%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? May 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 10 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 10 $5 +$4 +78%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 06 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 06 $10 +$16 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 28 $105 +$44 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 27 $118 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 17 $138 +$25 +18%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 16 $13 +$13 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 09 $230 +$6 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 09 $140 −$28 -20%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 09 $85 +$21 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April? Apr 06 $426 +$161 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 03 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Apr 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Apr 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3? Apr 03 $53 −$28 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 03 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $29 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 38¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 5¢ $26 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 49¢ $27 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $28 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $28 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $29 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 3d
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY No 53¢ $98 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY No 53¢ $3 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY No 53¢ $3 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 May 11-17? BUY No 53¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $27 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.24 · official $366.24 · 289 history records