Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb6af…4219 weather 650 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,193 (+5%) realized +$1,199 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%258W / 387L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$86
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 77% +$952
crypto 8% −$216
sports 6% +$100
other 4% +$64
world 3% +$37
politics 1% +$306
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +38.3% +25.1% 66% 62% +11.5%
≤30d 52 +2.5% -7.2% 46% 44% -2.3%
≤90d 420 +11.8% +1.1% 39% 36% -4.2%
all 645 +8.6% -1.8% 40% 38% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 38% -3.1%
10% -11.2% 33% -12.4%
15% -19.8% 30% -20.8%
20% -27.6% 28% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$1,199
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses258 / 387
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)645 / 650
History coverage622d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? No 66¢ 100¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? No 65¢ 19¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 251 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $45 +$6 +13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win Jun 23 $3 +$18 +566%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +15%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Arg Jun 23 $5 +$28 +542%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? Jun 22 $19 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $70 +$8 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$10 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$11 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +102%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$6 -58%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$11 +75%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$4 +165%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $41 +$13 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 −$15 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$13 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$42 +273%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $24 +$49 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $26 +$17 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 09 $25 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 9? Jun 09 $6 −$2 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY No 58¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? BUY No 70¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? BUY No 66¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? SELL No 61¢ $13 22h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win BUY 15¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 22? BUY No 68¢ $15 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? BUY No 69¢ $25 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 40h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Arg BUY 15¢ $5 42h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 54¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $79 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $70 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 7¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 61¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19? BUY No 80¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.41 · official $24.98 · 1736 history records