Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6b0…742b crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-9%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$69
sports 4% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +260.3% +226.0% 100% 100% +226.0%
≤30d 1 +260.3% +226.0% 100% 100% +226.0%
≤90d 41 -0.9% -10.4% 54% 44% -22.5%
all 45 -5.6% -14.5% 51% 42% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -23.4%
10% -22.7% 33% -30.7%
15% -30.2% 29% -37.4%
20% -37.0% 22% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage408d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$13 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 29 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 29 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 29 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 29 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 24 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Apr 24 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 24 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 23 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 23 $65 −$23 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 23 $80 −$58 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 23 $60 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 23 $120 +$27 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 23 $40 +$16 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 23 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 23 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 23 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 23 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 23 $8 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 23 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 23 $9 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 23 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 23 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$19 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 23 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 23 $11 +$1 +9%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$12 +247%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 23 $5 −$5 -95%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Nuggets (To Advance) May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Nuggets vs. Thunder May 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights May 07 $4 +$4 +88%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 78¢ $18 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $4 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 47d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $15 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $15 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $14 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $6 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $24 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $23 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $23 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records