Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6b0…8547 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$86
other 14% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 25% -30.9%
≤30d 12 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 25% -30.9%
≤90d 12 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 25% -30.9%
all 12 -13.1% -21.4% 25% 25% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 25% -30.9%
10% -28.9% 25% -37.5%
15% -35.8% 25% -43.5%
20% -42.1% 17% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$14 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 26
History coverage9d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $84 −$84 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $174 −$18 -10%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 +$1 +38%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? A Jun 27 $11 −$6 -57%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $15 +$18 +127%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? AND Will England vs. Ghana Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? AND Will Portugal vs. Uzbekista Jun 23 $3 −$3 -93%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Arge Jun 23 $10 +$32 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 71¢ $84 56m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $84 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $71 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Over 50¢ $72 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $102 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score AND Germany vs. Paraguay: Te BUY 35¢ $20 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY 24¢ $6 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca BUY 16¢ $11 36h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $4 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $3 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL 15¢ $3 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 26¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? A SELL $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? A BUY $11 3d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Exa BUY 10¢ $5 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 21¢ $16 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a dr BUY $3 6d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 28¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 95¢ $28 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $15 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to BUY $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records