trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $55 | $0 | −$55 (-100%) |
| US forces enter Iran by March 1? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $40 | $0 | −$40 (-100%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 13 | $29 | −$6 | -20% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Apr 07 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Apr 07 | $84 | −$40 | -48% |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Apr 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Mar 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 3? | Mar 18 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Mar 16 | $45 | −$1 | -2% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 1? | Mar 01 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? | Mar 01 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? | Mar 01 | $55 | −$55 | -100% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $20 | +$97 | +487% |
| US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? | Feb 28 | $9 | +$25 | +285% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 27 | $9 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -19.9% | -27.5% | 0% | 0% | -27.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -19.9% | -27.5% | 0% | 0% | -27.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -74.6% | -77.0% | 0% | 0% | -64.2% |
| all | 13 | -4.0% | -13.1% | 15% | 15% | -27.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.1% | 15% | -27.8% |
| 10% | -21.4% | 15% | -34.7% |
| 15% | -29.0% | 15% | -41.0% |
| 20% | -36.0% | 15% | -46.8% |