Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:28:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B6 0xb6b4…6709 tech 113 markets active 5h ago coverage 147d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 147d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$202 (+1%) realized −$273 · open +$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate32%31W / 67L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$7,525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,544
7 days−$2,544
14 days−$2,206
30 days−$2,969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 68% −$98
other 14% +$609
crypto 9% −$214
world 5% −$136
politics 4% +$365
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 66 -8.7% -17.4% 32% 20% -28.8%
≤90d 76 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 22% -26.0%
all 98 -10.3% -18.8% 32% 22% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 22% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 14% -29.9%
15% -33.7% 12% -36.7%
20% -40.2% 12% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$73 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$7,525
Realized−$273
Unrealized+$475
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses31 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions46
Markets (closed)98 / 113
History coverage147d ⚠
Avg bet$244
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 40¢ 72¢ $841 $1,503 +$661 (+79%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $992 $1,009 +$17 (+2%)
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap? SpaceX 88¢ 88¢ $950 $959 +$9 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 80¢ 100¢ $433 $540 +$106 (+25%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 23¢ 40¢ $241 $424 +$183 (+76%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $236 $388 +$152 (+64%)
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day? No 75¢ 86¢ $302 $346 +$44 (+15%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 66¢ 68¢ $277 $283 +$6 (+2%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $327 $276 −$51 (-16%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 56¢ 72¢ $203 $260 +$57 (+28%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $252 $240 −$13 (-5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $246 $208 −$38 (-15%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $202 $191 −$10 (-5%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? No 42¢ 30¢ $229 $162 −$67 (-29%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? No 21¢ 16¢ $200 $156 −$44 (-22%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $89 $104 +$15 (+17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $52 −$48 (-48%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $13 $40 +$27 (+212%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No 26¢ 34¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+29%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $26 +$7 (+34%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $234 $26 −$208 (-89%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 59¢ 28¢ $51 $24 −$27 (-53%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+11%)
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 46¢ 66¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Slovenia participate in Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $199 −$199 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Intel" or "Nvidia" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Mortgage" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 28 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" during WEF Address on January 2 Jun 28 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? Jun 28 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Trump say "Boeing" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $475 before 2026?? Jun 28 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of December? Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31? Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Resolve" or "Hammer" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 28 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Jun 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump say "American Dream" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 25+ times during W Jun 28 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of December? Jun 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Epstein blackmail evidence released in 2025? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain participate in Eurovision 2026? Jun 28 $725 −$725 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 28 $123 −$122 -99%
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit $505 before 2026?? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Ass" during WEF Address on January 21? Jun 28 $250 −$250 -100%
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Jun 17 $174 +$26 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -61%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$3 +7%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $1,252 +$258 +21%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? Jun 15 $992 +$51 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? Jun 14 $39 +$5 +14%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 13 $951 +$38 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $51 −$49 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $677 +$1 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,409 +$5 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,334 −$14 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $12 −$7 -59%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $655 −$487 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $292 −$267 -91%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $754 +$127 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $414 +$58 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$16 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $146 −$129 -89%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $139 −$17 -12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 12 $79 +$30 +38%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 12 $81 +$148 +184%
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 12 $75 −$6 -8%
Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 12 $89 −$3 -4%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? Jun 12 $384 −$7 -2%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 12 $180 +$203 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $15 4h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market clo BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $78 5h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $7 8h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on I BUY No 56¢ $52 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $12 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $67 14h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on I BUY No 80¢ $251 23h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be greater than $28B at market close o BUY Yes 9¢ $29 31h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be greater than $28B at market close o BUY Yes 9¢ $9 31h
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market clo BUY Yes 8¢ $1 31h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? SELL No 17¢ $9 33h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? SELL No 17¢ $6 47h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? SELL No 17¢ $6 47h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 69¢ $273 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 69¢ $138 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 69¢ $16 2d
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Down 69¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,525.39 · official $7,525.67 (match) · 3500 history records