trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 13¢ | 1¢ | $240 | $16 | −$224 (-93%) |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 19¢ | 2¢ | $170 | $15 | −$155 (-91%) |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? | Yes | 5¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-76%) |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $40 | $0 | −$40 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $41 | −$40 | -99% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? | Jun 09 | $23 | +$15 | +67% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Apr 21 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | Apr 21 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | Apr 20 | $13 | +$2 | +15% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | Apr 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -58.3% | -62.3% | 25% | 25% | -80.2% |
| ≤30d | 4 | -58.3% | -62.3% | 25% | 25% | -80.2% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -51.1% | -55.8% | 38% | 25% | -75.3% |
| all | 8 | -51.1% | -55.8% | 38% | 25% | -75.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -55.8% | 25% | -75.3% |
| 10% | -60.0% | 12% | -77.7% |
| 15% | -63.9% | 12% | -79.9% |
| 20% | -67.4% | 12% | -81.8% |