Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6bb…21b8 other 64 markets active 2d ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-4%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate50%32W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$32
14 days−$32
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$27
politics 22% +$3
sports 9% −$68
crypto 7% −$3
tech 7% −$1
economics 5% +$1
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 25% -27.1%
≤30d 20 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 25% -27.1%
≤90d 22 -15.2% -23.3% 45% 23% -23.2%
all 64 -13.2% -21.4% 50% 19% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 19% -13.3%
10% -29.0% 12% -21.6%
15% -35.8% 9% -29.2%
20% -42.1% 6% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses32 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage249d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +307%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $19 −$1 -3%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -75%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$7 -55%
China coup attempt before 2027? Jun 11 $9 $0 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 11 $16 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 11 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $9 +$1 +15%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 24, 2026? Mar 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 24? Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 22 $18 +$2 +12%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 22 $29 $0 +1%
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Northwestern Wildcats Dec 26 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 08 $31 $0 +2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 08 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Nov 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 23 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Abstract launch a token in 2025? Nov 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $15 +$1 +8%
Pistons vs. Grizzlies Nov 04 $45 +$4 +8%
Jiangxi Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Viktorija Golubic Nov 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Nov 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by October 31? Nov 04 $5 $0 +1%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 31 $15 +$1 +4%
Pacers vs. Timberwolves Oct 28 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 27 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 27 $16 $0 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) Oct 27 $27 +$3 +10%
Raptors vs. Wizards Oct 19 $1 +$1 +54%
Ohio State vs. Illinois Oct 19 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 39h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $18 6d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $10 6d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 6d
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 6d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 76¢ $15 6d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $10 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 37d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 37d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 99d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 102d
China coup attempt before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $9 103d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $19 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 344 history records