Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6bd…8bcb crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-15%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%26W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$7
14 days−$3
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.2% -18.7% 71% 29% -21.4%
≤30d 35 -3.2% -12.5% 74% 63% -27.1%
≤90d 35 -3.2% -12.5% 74% 63% -27.1%
all 35 -3.2% -12.5% 74% 63% -27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 63% -27.1%
10% -20.8% 34% -34.1%
15% -28.5% 23% -40.5%
20% -35.5% 11% -46.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses26 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage22d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9AM ET Jun 02 $4 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3AM ET May 30 $10 −$6 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 30 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 29 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 28 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 25 $5 +$3 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $9 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records