Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6c1…5f44 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
world 26% $0
politics 19% $0
sports 11% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 25% 12% -8.7%
all 45 -0.6% -10.0% 24% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage299d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 45¢ $36 $35 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $66 +$2 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $4 $0 +12%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $7 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $2 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $4 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican? Sep 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $2 $0 -14%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 15 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 15 $2 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $1 $0 -17%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
2025 August third hottest on record? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 29 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $32 6h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 8h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $2 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $5 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $26 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $31 19d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $29 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $21 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $6 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 72¢ $25 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.65 · official $34.65 (match) · 171 history records