Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6c2…ffc7 politics 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%5W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$5
other 33% −$4
sports 13% −$1
culture 5% −$1
economics 5% −$1
world 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 77 -4.4% -13.5% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses5 / 72
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage383d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $226 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $59 $0 +1%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 31 $57 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $2 $0 -14%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 28 $183 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 26 $57 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $124 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 03 $57 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $1 $0 -50%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $59 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $1 $0 -17%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 25 $60 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 22 $126 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 05 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $62 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $64 $0 -1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 08 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 5d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $57 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 29d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 29d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 113d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $59 125d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 141d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $57 148d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $57 150d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 150d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 151d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 152d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 154d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 154d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 154d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 156d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $57 156d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 157d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $58 157d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $58 158d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 159d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 161d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $58 161d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $58 162d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.70 · official $57.70 (match) · 355 history records