Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6c8…af28 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$9
other 24% $0
politics 7% +$1
crypto 6% −$1
finance 3% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.5% -12.7% 11% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 22 -7.0% -15.9% 14% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 22 -7.0% -15.9% 14% 0% -10.9%
all 50 -3.0% -12.2% 34% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.0%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage458d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -27%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $26 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $45 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $24 −$3 -14%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $69 −$3 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 $0 -27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jun 27 $9 $0 +4%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $6 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Williams have the second highest Constructor score at the 2025 Mo May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 23 $9 $0 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $9 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 13 $7 −$2 -24%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 16? May 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 2–9? May 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 08 $9 $0 +2%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $1 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the third most seats in the next Canadian May 05 $10 $0 +4%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? Apr 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? Apr 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 27 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 28 $11 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes $6 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 43h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $25 45h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $26 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.16 · official $26.19 (match) · 177 history records