Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb6cc…0f34 politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$2,249per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% +$77
other 25% −$6
sports 22% −$8
economics 18% +$6
world 9% +$42
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -11.1% -19.5% 12% 12% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -8.8% -17.5% 30% 10% -9.6%
all 42 +8.4% -1.9% 50% 26% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 26% -9.4%
10% -11.3% 14% -18.1%
15% -19.8% 14% -26.0%
20% -27.7% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$5,156) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)42 / 55
History coverage613d
Avg bet$2,249
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? No 91¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $5,100 −$8 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $5,212 −$8 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5,156 −$7 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $5,101 −$8 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $5,111 −$6 -0%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $2 $0 +12%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $5,224 −$10 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 17 $5,291 +$5 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Apr 27 $5,270 +$21 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $5,255 −$5 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Mar 18 $2 +$2 +107%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Mar 18 $5,240 +$21 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $5,245 −$5 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $5,290 −$5 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 15 $5,325 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 15 $2 $0 +18%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $1 +$3 +270%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $5,277 +$21 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 13 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 13 $5 $0 +10%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 11 $5,111 −$10 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 11 $5 $0 +4%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Jan 31 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jan 31 $22 +$5 +20%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $870 +$23 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $605 +$22 +4%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jul 04 $216 −$1 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $33 +$34 +104%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Jun 25 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Mar 05 $202 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Mar 05 $61 −$61 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Mar 05 $80 +$11 +14%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Jan 06 $111 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Republican candidate win Pennsylvania by 2.5% or more? Nov 19 $162 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $176 +$87 +49%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $310 +$8 +3%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Oct 16 $165 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,092 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,100 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,204 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,212 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5,208 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,223 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5,149 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,156 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $5,093 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $5,101 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5,105 20d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5,111 20d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 89¢ $2 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $5,214 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $5,224 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,291 54d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $5,270 94d
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,240 125d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5,240 125d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5,245 125d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $5,245 125d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $5,255 125d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 125d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,258 125d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,299 125d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,299 125d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,339 125d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? BUY Down 48¢ $2 125d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $16 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.46 · official $130.46 (match) · 236 history records