Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B6
0xb6ce…895d
world · 329 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$109 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$440 · open −$342
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$21,593
Realized+$440
Unrealized−$342
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses103 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions149
Markets (closed)182 / 329
History coverage46d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 149 History 182 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$77
14 days−$496
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 85¢ $4,811 $5,098 +$287 (+6%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $1,549 $1,606 +$57 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $1,157 $1,272 +$114 (+10%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $969 $996 +$27 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? No 50¢ 100¢ $471 $951 +$480 (+102%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $1,207 $903 −$304 (-25%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $844 $861 +$17 (+2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $718 $715 −$3 (-0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $901 $604 −$297 (-33%)
Will no player win a Calendar Grand Slam in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $591 $601 +$10 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? No 55¢ 100¢ $278 $508 +$230 (+83%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $333 $436 +$103 (+31%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 81¢ $402 $407 +$5 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $314 $350 +$36 (+11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $399 $301 −$98 (-25%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $284 $300 +$16 (+6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 97¢ $298 $297 −$2 (-1%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $266 $292 +$26 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 90¢ $263 $267 +$3 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $206 $207 +$2 (+1%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $181 $182 +$2 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $164 $168 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 63¢ 56¢ $187 $167 −$20 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ 33¢ $126 $161 +$35 (+28%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 100¢ $115 $161 +$46 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $66 −$6 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $76 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$6 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $37 $0 +1%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $12 −$10 -77%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $26 +$7 +26%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $43 +$4 +9%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 −$11 -35%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $26 +$11 +44%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,762 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $12 −$8 -66%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $6 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $69 +$8 +11%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $34 +$1 +2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $12 +$6 +55%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $16 +$20 +123%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $15 −$2 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $3 +$41 +1314%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$6 +400%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $83 −$26 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $32 +$1 +3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $45 −$21 -47%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $480 −$136 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $13 −$4 -30%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$1 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,683 +$88 +1%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 01 $101 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2,095 −$75 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $328 +$47 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $7 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? May 31 $15 +$2 +14%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $153 −$3 -2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $49 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2,314 −$385 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$374
other 20% −$133
politics 20% −$136
crypto 14% −$13
economics 0% +$12
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% +$8
sports 0% −$10
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $50 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 23m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 25m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 30m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 31m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 32m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 33m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL No 98¢ $5 37m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $7 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $4 40m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $45 40m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $95 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $1 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 51m
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $21 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $29 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $13 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $16 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +115.8% +95.2% 73% 52% +10.9%
≤30d 132 +58.3% +43.2% 58% 32% -10.1%
≤90d 182 +55.9% +41.0% 57% 29% -5.7%
all 182 +55.9% +41.0% 57% 29% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.0% 29% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here +27.6% 24% -14.7%
15% +15.2% 19% -23.0%
20% +3.9% 17% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,593.36 · official $21,587.52 (match) · 3500 history records