Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6d1…15ed other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$4
other 20% −$3
world 15% −$2
sports 14% −$3
crypto 9% −$1
finance 9% −$2
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$748) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage95d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Jun 23 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $1,081 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Jun 22 $1,134 −$2 -0%
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 22 $1,181 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 22 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $26 $0 -0%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 16 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Poland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Apr 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $738 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Mike White win Survivor Season 50? Apr 15 $74 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 15 $705 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $739 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 14 $748 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Bubba Watson win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $130 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,141 50m
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 58m
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,105 1h
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $821 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $258 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $1,081 2h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 19h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 19h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 19h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,179 19h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 19h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $38 20h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,156 20h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $842 20h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $254 20h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 20h
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 20h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $1,097 21h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $110 39d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $93 39d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $42 39d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 39d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $17 39d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $16 39d
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 39d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $26 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.56 · official $54.56 (match) · 96 history records