Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb6d3…a093 politics 935 markets active 0h ago coverage 617d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 617d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$103,312 (-43%) realized −$103,352 · open +$40
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%715W / 204L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,087now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 617d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$9,576
crypto 33% +$3,531
other 14% +$1,348
world 8% +$261
sports 5% −$530
finance 3% +$245
economics 1% +$22
culture 1% +$8
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.1% -4.0% 88% 21% -7.9%
≤30d 62 -0.1% -9.6% 77% 11% -10.4%
≤90d 221 +0.1% -9.5% 81% 13% -7.7%
all 919 -0.4% -9.9% 78% 24% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 24% -11.3%
10% -18.5% 9% -19.8%
15% -26.4% 5% -27.6%
20% -33.6% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$100 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$3,087
Realized−$103,352
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses715 / 204
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions16
Markets (closed)919 / 935
History coverage617d ⚠
Avg bet$255
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $961 $956 −$5 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 97¢ $434 $438 +$4 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 100¢ $190 $199 +$9 (+5%)
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $196 $198 +$2 (+1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $186 $196 +$10 (+5%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $194 $194 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 78¢ 80¢ $157 $162 +$5 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 58¢ 57¢ $116 $115 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iraq reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $93 $93 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $90 $92 +$3 (+3%)
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 85¢ 87¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 92¢ $42 $46 +$5 (+11%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $478 +$23 +5%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $482 −$101 -21%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $481 +$19 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 20 $98 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $274 +$1 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $185 +$16 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $99 +$1 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $80 +$4 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Jun 19 $16 −$5 -30%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $194 +$6 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $460 +$40 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $83 +$17 +21%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $61 +$11 +17%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $187 +$3 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $641 +$24 +4%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $191 −$3 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $485 +$15 +3%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 12 $2,096 +$37 +2%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $619 −$40 -6%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 10 $1,629 +$50 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $290 +$10 +3%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $2,849 +$235 +8%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $365 −$56 -15%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $51 −$21 -41%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $348 −$5 -1%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $738 +$53 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $196 +$3 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $464 +$38 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? Jun 02 $197 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $391 −$28 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $981 +$19 +2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by May 31? May 30 $300 +$13 +4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1,889 −$139 -7%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 29 $132 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $181 +$20 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $93 +$7 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $44 +$6 +15%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $95 −$3 -4%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $93 19m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $385 30m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $93 41m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $133 48m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 49m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $1 57m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $1 57m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $8 57m
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 75¢ $65 57m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 86¢ $85 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 87¢ $86 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 88¢ $1 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $80 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $4 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $142 2h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $24 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $457 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $55 7h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $427 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $192 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $274 22h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $185 23h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 91¢ $23 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,087.48 · official $3,085.63 (match) · 3500 history records