Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6d5…0f13 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%75W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day139.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$20
other 2% −$2
sports 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 37% -12.8%
≤30d 106 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 37% -12.8%
≤90d 106 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 37% -12.8%
all 106 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 37% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover139.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 37% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 18% -21.2%
15% -27.6% 8% -28.8%
20% -34.7% 3% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses75 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage2d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day139.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.76 · official $3.76 (match) · 400 history records