Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6d7…c5d6 other 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$31
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$47
sports 21% −$13
economics 7% −$8
politics 7% −$6
culture 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)258 / 258
History coverage138d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 258 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $823 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $308 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $413 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $792 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $894 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $178 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $518 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $344 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $672 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $852 −$2 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $841 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $466 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $222 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $974 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $296 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $703 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $159 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $585 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $798 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $199 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $149 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 28m
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 1h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 4h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 6h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 13h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 14h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 23h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 25h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 29h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 33h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 34h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 36h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 41h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 43h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 44h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 45h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $64 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $64 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1419 history records