Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:18:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6d9…4007 politics 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$809 (-1%) realized −$808 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,150per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days+$2
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$83
other 29% −$457
sports 15% −$261
economics 3% −$7
culture 2% −$3
world 2% −$21
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +6.0% -4.1% 14% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 95 -11.3% -19.8% 9% 5% -10.2%
all 131 -4.6% -13.7% 18% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 9% -10.0%
10% -21.9% 9% -18.6%
15% -29.5% 8% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,607) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$25 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$1,304
Realized−$808
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)131 / 133
History coverage140d
Avg bet$1,150
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $962 $962 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $343 $343 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,266 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,987 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,873 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $4,373 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,920 −$4 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $2,278 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $942 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $4,075 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,557 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,473 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,461 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $2,658 −$4 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $69 +$114 +165%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,482 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,520 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $358 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,926 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $460 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $765 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $58 +$48 +83%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 23 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,956 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $616 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $51 +$38 +73%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,219 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $249 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,938 −$4 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $236 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $236 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $234 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $962 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $646 3h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $647 4h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $995 24h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $996 26h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 27h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $857 30h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $861 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $862 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $859 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $861 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $881 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $883 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,128 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $343 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,130 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,276 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,278 5d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,095 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,106 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,107 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $941 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $942 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,113 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,319 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,320 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,374 9d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,376 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,304.10 · official $1,304.10 (match) · 459 history records