Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6dc…0fb8 tech 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$195 (+1%) realized +$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%182W / 5L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$51
14 days+$80
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 60% +$95
weather 38% +$70
politics 1% +$13
finance 0% +$8
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.2% -7.5% 98% 2% -8.0%
≤30d 101 -0.7% -10.2% 96% 2% -8.5%
≤90d 165 -0.5% -10.0% 97% 1% -8.7%
all 187 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -8.5%
10% -18.3% 1% -17.3%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses182 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage143d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 −$8 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $180 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of June 8 above $440? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $244 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $128 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $410 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $77 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $198 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $266 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $43 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $263 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $256 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 32m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $6 47m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $29 16h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $9 18h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $29 23h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $19 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $29 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $3 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $4 35h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 35h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $49 37h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $6 37h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 37h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $5 37h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.80 · official $29.80 (match) · 643 history records