Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B6 0xb6dd…7af9 sports 709 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,896 (-5%) realized −$6,249 · open +$1,353
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%323W / 377L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$1,158est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3,496now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,662
7 days+$6,487
14 days+$6,407
30 days+$4,602
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,556
other 6% −$332
world 4% −$94
politics 1% +$22
crypto 1% −$608
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +34.1% +21.4% 50% 50% +29.4%
≤30d 91 +3.3% -6.6% 45% 45% +7.9%
≤90d 552 -32.5% -39.0% 33% 32% -22.0%
all 700 -12.8% -21.1% 46% 40% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 40% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -23.2%
15% -35.6% 35% -30.6%
20% -41.9% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$122 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$3,496
Realized−$6,249
Unrealized+$1,353
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses323 / 377
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$1,158
Open positions9
Markets (closed)700 / 709
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$142
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 50¢ 52¢ $1,000 $1,050 +$50 (+5%)
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Canada 31¢ 97¢ $310 $970 +$660 (+213%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 55¢ 99¢ $385 $695 +$310 (+80%)
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Canada 15¢ 85¢ $105 $595 +$490 (+467%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 23¢ 19¢ $115 $95 −$20 (-17%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 17¢ $220 $85 −$135 (-61%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $510 +$290 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $360 +$640 +178%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $450 +$550 +122%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $597 +$403 +67%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $635 +$1,565 +246%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $97 −$94 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $111 +$489 +442%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $565 +$935 +165%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $357 +$643 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $358 +$242 +67%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,115 +$885 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $467 +$533 +114%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $377 −$370 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $547 −$540 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $527 +$473 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $524 −$520 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $610 −$608 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $520 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $118 −$118 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $766 +$634 +83%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $529 −$520 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $754 −$10 -1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $60 −$58 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $613 −$610 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $408 −$408 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $413 −$413 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $690 +$810 +117%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $270 +$730 +270%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $418 +$380 +91%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $334 +$466 +140%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-6.5) Jun 11 $97 +$103 +105%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 10 $193 −$191 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 171.5 Jun 10 $105 +$95 +90%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-7.5) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 08 $116 +$84 +72%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 08 $306 −$106 -35%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $79 −$77 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $58 −$57 -98%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $105 −$104 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-10.5) Jun 07 $99 +$88 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $224 1h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 15¢ $108 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $390 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $115 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 31¢ $316 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $510 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $246 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $3 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $6 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $6 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $3 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $6 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $17 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $3 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $3 4h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $68 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $26 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $3 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $19 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $13 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 8h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,496.05 · official $3,500.05 (match) · 3500 history records