Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B6 0xb6e4…07b1 sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$513 (-7%) realized −$373 · open −$140

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip

Net edge-55%after slip

Net WR19%break-even

Win rate19%4W / 17L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$266per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$35est.

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$1,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$796

7 days−$454

14 days−$454

30 days−$454

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +19%

net ROI/market (all)-54.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-50.0%	-54.7%	19%	19%	-17.8%
≤30d	21	-50.0%	-54.7%	19%	19%	-17.8%
≤90d	21	-50.0%	-54.7%	19%	19%	-17.8%
all	21	-50.0%	-54.7%	19%	19%	-17.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-54.7%	19%	-17.8%
10%	-59.1%	10%	-25.7%
15%	-63.0%	10%	-32.9%
20%	-66.7%	10%	-39.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -50% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -59% → late -41% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$318 vs −$102 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.74 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage

Net worth$1,640

Realized−$373

Unrealized−$140

Win rate (resolved)19%

Wins / losses4 / 17

Est. fees paid−$35

Open positions4

Markets (closed)21 / 26

History coverage84d

Avg bet$266

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$1,000	$940	−$60 (-6%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Yes	86¢	100¢	$500	$582	+$82 (+16%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	47¢	46¢	$122	$118	−$4 (-3%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$159	$1	−$158 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$517	+$461	+89%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$202	−$60	-30%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$1,100	+$140	+13%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	Jun 15	$357	−$294	-82%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 14	$101	−$29	-29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$793	+$629	+79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-96%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$3	−$3	-99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$21	−$6	-27%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$26	−$2	-8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$10	−$6	-55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$329	−$164	-50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$239	+$41	+17%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$41	−$26	-64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 12	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Jun 12	$11	−$8	-74%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect	Jun 12	$1,299	−$1,069	-82%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	47¢	$124	6m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	86¢	$502	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	42¢	$1,017	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$11	1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$961	2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	52¢	$507	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	47¢	$142	2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	33¢	$18	3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	90¢	$999	18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	75¢	$101	18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	6¢	$62	20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	20h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	SELL Yes	39¢	$72	20h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	37¢	$306	21h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	BUY Yes	53¢	$101	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$793	25h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	1¢	$0	42h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	61¢	$3	44h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	27¢	$5	44h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	40¢	$5	44h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	74¢	$5	44h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	50¢	$20	44h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$15	44h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	16¢	$24	44h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	50¢	$5	44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	94¢	$162	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,640.47 · official $953.88 · 57 history records