Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B6 0xb6e5…7127 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$10,216 (+45%) realized +$10,327 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 42L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$4,894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$350
7 days+$402
14 days−$173
30 days+$12,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$366
politics 40% +$10,999
crypto 15% −$974
world 3% −$376
sports 0% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +16.3% +5.2% 54% 46% +3.8%
≤30d 65 -5.2% -14.3% 45% 37% +85.5%
≤90d 67 -8.1% -16.8% 43% 36% +83.9%
all 82 -8.8% -17.4% 49% 33% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 33% +43.1%
10% -25.3% 26% +29.4%
15% -32.6% 21% +16.9%
20% -39.2% 17% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +103% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$100 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$4,894
Realized+$10,327
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions41
Markets (closed)82 / 123
History coverage566d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $500 $847 +$347 (+69%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $500 $556 +$56 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $500 $418 −$82 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $417 −$83 (-17%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $301 $360 +$60 (+20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $500 $322 −$178 (-36%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 24¢ 57¢ $110 $262 +$152 (+138%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 48¢ $100 $179 +$80 (+80%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $200 $132 −$68 (-34%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 81¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 90¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 30¢ $200 $91 −$109 (-54%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 56¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+37%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+11%)
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 40¢ $100 $49 −$51 (-51%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 37¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $80 $44 −$35 (-44%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $100 +$85 +85%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 +$39 +38%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $100 +$13 +13%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $10 +$45 +442%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$23 +442%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $300 +$100 +33%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$33 +650%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $300 +$111 +37%
Will Senegal win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $99 +$7 +7%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $300 +$128 +43%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $277 −$277 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 +$156 +156%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $100 −$31 -31%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 −$61 -61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $300 +$277 +92%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $300 +$80 +27%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$97 +96%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the most seats in South Korea’s Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 1h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 1h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 33¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 7¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,893.79 · official $4,893.16 (match) · 520 history records