trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -8.6% |
| ≤30d | 14 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 36% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 36% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 28 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 50% | 4% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 4% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $42 | $41 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 19 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 19 | $81 | +$1 | +1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 03 | $37 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $21 | +$1 | +5% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 02 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 31 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 31 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $36 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 30 | $37 | −$1 | -3% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 30 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 29 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will India invade Pakistan before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times June 6–13? | Jun 09 | $1 | $0 | +21% |
| Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 09 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 08 | $11 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 07 | $8 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 06 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 06 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Apr 04 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel retaliates against Houthis in March? | Apr 03 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? | Mar 29 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 29 | $15 | $0 | +0% |