Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb6e9…fecf other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$105 (-7%) realized −$114 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,049now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$23
tech 11% −$71
other 10% −$34
world 8% −$20
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -33.9% -40.2% 20% 20% -37.5%
≤90d 13 -12.3% -20.6% 38% 23% -29.3%
all 13 -12.3% -20.6% 38% 23% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 23% -29.3%
10% -28.2% 15% -36.1%
15% -35.2% 15% -42.3%
20% -41.5% 15% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1,049
Realized−$114
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage96d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $1,040 $1,049 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $32 +$48 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? May 29 $26 −$5 -18%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? May 27 $35 −$9 -25%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? May 24 $105 −$69 -66%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $107 $0 +0%
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka May 22 $2 −$1 -31%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 22 $21 +$4 +21%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 22 $74 −$1 -2%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore May 11 $9 +$10 +109%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 09 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,053 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $20 17d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $32 28d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $67 28d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes $2 28d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? SELL No 59¢ $22 28d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $26 30d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? SELL No 65¢ $26 30d
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $35 33d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL No 25¢ $35 33d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 71¢ $105 34d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $105 34d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $105 35d
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka SELL Afghanistan 49¢ $1 35d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 90¢ $73 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $74 35d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $21 45d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Rajasthan Royals 47¢ $9 77d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $5 77d
ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka BUY Afghanistan 70¢ $2 95d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $5 95d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $2 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,048.97 · official $1,048.97 (match) · 26 history records