trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | -33.9% | -40.2% | 20% | 20% | -37.5% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -12.3% | -20.6% | 38% | 23% | -29.3% |
| all | 13 | -12.3% | -20.6% | 38% | 23% | -29.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.6% | 23% | -29.3% |
| 10% | -28.2% | 15% | -36.1% |
| 15% | -35.2% | 15% | -42.3% |
| 20% | -41.5% | 15% | -47.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 | Under | 58¢ | 58¢ | $1,040 | $1,049 | +$9 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 29 | $32 | +$48 | +149% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 29 | $67 | −$66 | -98% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | May 29 | $2 | −$2 | -95% |
| Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? | May 29 | $26 | −$5 | -18% |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027? | May 27 | $35 | −$9 | -25% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? | May 24 | $105 | −$69 | -66% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 23 | $107 | $0 | +0% |
| ODI Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka | May 22 | $2 | −$1 | -31% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 22 | $21 | +$4 | +21% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June | May 22 | $74 | −$1 | -2% |
| Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore | May 11 | $9 | +$10 | +109% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 09 | $5 | $0 | +3% |