Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ec…fd3f other 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,070 (-7%) realized −$2,080 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%187W / 137L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$36
14 days−$289
30 days−$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$1,596
world 19% −$138
sports 16% −$36
weather 6% −$442
finance 4% −$14
politics 2% +$80
crypto 1% +$20
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +35.9% +22.9% 100% 100% +22.9%
≤30d 98 -8.6% -17.3% 55% 31% -13.1%
≤90d 204 -9.1% -17.7% 56% 39% -13.4%
all 324 -6.3% -15.2% 58% 45% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 45% -16.5%
10% -23.3% 35% -24.5%
15% -30.7% 26% -31.8%
20% -37.5% 19% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$46 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$2,080
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses187 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)324 / 325
History coverage145d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $36 $46 +$10 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$36 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$8 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 −$103 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $273 −$53 -19%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$84 +165%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $157 −$155 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $150 −$124 -82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$8 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $110 −$30 -27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$31 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $315 −$65 -21%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $615 −$68 -11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$2 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $23 $0 +0%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $83 +$20 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $124 −$1 -1%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $101 +$23 +23%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $203 +$4 +2%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $100 +$15 +14%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $116 +$15 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 -7%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 +$10 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 205.5 Jun 09 $101 +$33 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $36 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $113 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 9d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $62 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 68¢ $42 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 82¢ $102 12d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under $0 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 74¢ $221 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $273 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $101 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $100 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 12d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $101 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $51 13d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $108 13d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $13 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 95¢ $109 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 13d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.24 · official $45.62 (match) · 879 history records