Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6ef…55d8 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$24 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$35
crypto 21% +$2
other 13% +$4
sports 1% −$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 33% -22.4%
≤30d 8 -6.1% -15.1% 62% 25% -14.7%
≤90d 11 -8.3% -17.0% 64% 27% -14.9%
all 15 -19.0% -26.7% 60% 20% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 20% -15.4%
10% -33.7% 13% -23.5%
15% -40.1% 7% -30.9%
20% -46.0% 7% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage136d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 83¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $11 −$2 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $64 +$9 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $74 −$40 -54%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $3 −$1 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 22 $224 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? May 11 $1 $0 +1%
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? Feb 26 $1 $0 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Feb 26 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $51 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $65 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $77 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $56 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $73 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 37¢ $74 24d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $64 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $53 24d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $224 32d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 32d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 35d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Spirit 63¢ $1 35d
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 65¢ $2 35d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 81¢ $2 35d
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 98¢ $1 109d
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 91¢ $2 109d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? SELL No 100¢ $1 109d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? SELL No 100¢ $1 109d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $1 136d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February? BUY No 95¢ $1 136d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $1 136d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.93 · official $190.93 (match) · 66 history records