Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb6f0…1b2e other 18 markets active 19h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$19
other 33% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -5.1%
≤30d 18 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -5.1%
≤90d 18 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -5.1%
all 18 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 50% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 50% -5.1%
10% -19.7% 50% -14.1%
15% -27.5% 39% -22.4%
20% -34.6% 39% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$4 +34%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $24 +$27 +112%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$27 +138%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 17 $18 +$6 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$22 +112%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$12 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $10 +$10 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 30 history records