Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6f0…6da2 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+5%) realized +$253 · open −$211
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 30% +8.1%
≤30d 10 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 30% +8.1%
≤90d 10 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 30% +8.1%
all 10 -13.9% -22.1% 40% 30% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 30% +8.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 30% -2.3%
15% -36.4% 30% -11.7%
20% -42.6% 20% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$25 · ×2.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$253
Unrealized−$211
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Grind Back 35¢ 0¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 23 $100 −$24 -24%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $118 −$66 -56%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $114 +$94 +82%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $92 +$146 +159%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $93 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $22 −$17 -77%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $75 +$30 +40%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $16 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 35¢ $215 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $208 1h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY OG 54¢ $114 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 38¢ $67 4h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 56¢ $37 4h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $51 4h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 42¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 33¢ $26 5h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 57¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia SELL Grind Back 100¢ $238 5h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY Grind Back 38¢ $92 18h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL THE VISION 95¢ $92 18h
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY THE VISION 96¢ $93 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 41¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 56¢ $18 20h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A SELL Grind Back 100¢ $105 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $10 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 71¢ $7 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 26¢ $7 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 32¢ $9 21h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Grind Back 71¢ $75 22h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 98¢ $74 23h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 28¢ $26 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 26 history records