Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:37:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6f1…710b weather 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$466 (-2%) realized −$121 · open −$345
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate77%148W / 43L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days+$335
14 days+$400
30 days+$293
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$951
world 4% +$153
other 2% +$68
politics 2% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.1% -10.5% 76% 48% +5.4%
≤30d 62 +1.2% -8.4% 84% 32% -4.6%
≤90d 175 +1.0% -8.7% 79% 36% -11.1%
all 191 +1.1% -8.6% 77% 37% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 37% -10.9%
10% -17.3% 13% -19.5%
15% -25.3% 7% -27.2%
20% -32.6% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$76 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized−$121
Unrealized−$345
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses148 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage112d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Yes 88¢ 16¢ $422 $76 −$345 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $122 +$131 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $105 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $167 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $21 +$9 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $179 +$21 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $229 +$13 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $7 −$5 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $155 +$39 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $94 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 −$29 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $143 +$100 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $97 +$16 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$15 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $88 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $89 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $70 +$14 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$18 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$7 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $132 −$131 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $46 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $37 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $73 +$14 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $127 −$76 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $194 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $127 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $226 −$35 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 96¢ $139 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $11 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 91¢ $109 15m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 62¢ $20 54m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $252 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 53¢ $33 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 45¢ $88 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $173 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 93¢ $21 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $87 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 87¢ $17 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 97¢ $146 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $30 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 69¢ $21 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 89¢ $179 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $64 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.48 · official $76.48 (match) · 1130 history records