Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B6 0xb6f8…dfee crypto 536 markets active 2d ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+7%) realized +$178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%380W / 156L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$17
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$79
world 8% +$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -4.9% -13.9% 69% 59% -14.2%
≤30d 505 -5.6% -14.6% 72% 62% -12.9%
≤90d 534 -5.3% -14.4% 71% 61% -13.2%
all 536 -4.6% -13.7% 71% 61% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 61% -4.1%
10% -22.0% 43% -13.3%
15% -29.5% 21% -21.7%
20% -36.4% 7% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses380 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)536 / 536
History coverage168d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 536 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1260 history records