Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:41:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B6 0xb6f9…aa84 politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,093 (-1%) realized −$1,097 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 104L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,015per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,048now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$67
other 38% +$208
sports 13% −$1,256
world 1% +$7
crypto 1% +$5
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 -2.0% -11.3% 6% 0% -11.3%
all 125 +0.3% -9.2% 17% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 12% -10.3%
10% -17.9% 11% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 9% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,318) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$22 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,048
Realized−$1,097
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)125 / 127
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,015
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $592 $597 +$4 (+1%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $451 $451 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $1,953 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $421 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,793 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $637 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $121 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $580 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $119 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $164 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $135 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $286 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,284 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $273 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $275 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $990 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $300 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 05 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $4,434 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,235 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,922 −$2 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,343 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,351 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,087 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,740 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,270 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $3,650 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $3,679 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $5,263 −$8 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $75 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $451 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $423 3h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $424 5h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $422 27h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $423 29h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 47h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $432 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $423 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $423 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $423 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $424 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $435 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $435 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $420 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $421 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $593 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $685 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $685 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $940 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $942 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $850 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $851 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $872 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $873 20d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $673 21d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $674 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,047.75 · official $1,047.75 (match) · 413 history records