Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B6 0xb6fa…abcf other 262 markets active 1d ago coverage 54d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$29,210 (+23%) realized +$28,933 · open +$277
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate32%186W / 398L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$354now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$36,670
other 34% −$37,059
world 21% −$25,622
culture 4% −$4,105
crypto 1% −$730
sports 0% −$337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 +166.3% +141.0% 20% 20% -81.2%
≤30d 168 +166.3% +141.0% 20% 20% -81.2%
≤90d 430 +5.8% -4.3% 8% 8% -99.1%
all 430 +5.8% -4.3% 8% 8% -99.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 8% -99.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 8% -99.2%
15% -21.8% 8% -99.3%
20% -29.5% 8% -99.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -98% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -97% → late +116% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$271 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$354
Realized+$28,933
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses186 / 398
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions155
Markets (closed)584 / 262
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$479
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 155 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+426%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$16 (+415%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+395%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+395%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+395%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+395%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $19 +$15 (+395%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $18 +$14 (+339%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+495%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+481%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $18 +$14 (+432%)
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 Masters tournament? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-1 $13 +$14 (-1489%)
Will Rizvan Kuniev be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 29¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+21789%)
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 0¢ 17¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+12532%)
Will George Pickens play for Houston Texans in 2026-27? Yes -0¢ 22¢ $-0 $1 +$1 (-14767%)
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes -0¢ 4¢ $-0 $1 +$1 (-4684%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $-0 $1 +$1 (-1026%)
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 Action of the Year? Yes -0¢ 4¢ $-0 $1 +$1 (-3341%)
Will George Pickens play for Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026-27? Yes -0¢ 12¢ $-0 $1 +$1 (-8099%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 345 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 29 $0 −$3 -1106%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $0 $0 +75%
Will Jesper Bratt win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $1 +$4 +606%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Mathis Preston be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 T Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 K Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Ryan O'Reilly win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Karim Adeyemi be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga se Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mitchell Marner win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid place 2nd for the 2025-26 LaLiga season? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Fabian Lysell win the 2025–2026 NHL Calder Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Andrea Pinamonti be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A se Jun 29 $0 +$5 +3098%
Will Jonathan Burkardt be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundeslig Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Wolfgang Grozo finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Lois Openda be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga seas Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Marisol Pérez Tello finish in second place in the first round of Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jaccob Slavin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jake Guentzel win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $1 +$69 +9658%
Will Vladimir Prebilič be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shane Pinto win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juraj Slafkovsky win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Janata Dal (Secular) (JD(S)) win the most seats in the 2026 K Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Pre Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 29 $-3 +$218 —%
Will Thierno Barry be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premi Jun 29 $0 +$2 —%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alex Vlasic win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex DeBrincat win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tareke Gregg win the 2026 London Borough of Hackney mayoral elect Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Marcus Rashford be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 La Liga sea Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Jim Hiller win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chris Gober be the Republican Nominee for TX-10? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Englis Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seat Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anna Kalinskaya be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Jason Hart be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Serena Williams be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Joe Pyfer be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will Maja Chwalinska be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 9d
Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 9d
Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 10d
Will Erik Murray be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will Damon Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 11d
Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 11d
Will Tyrell Fortune be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 20 SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Petr Yan be the next fighter to be ranked first in the UFC Pound- SELL Yes 14¢ $1 13d
Will Victoria Doyle be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 18d
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 18d
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 21d
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 21d
Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 21d
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will Troy Jackson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 24d
Will Maja Chwalińska win the 2026 Women’s French Open? SELL Yes 22¢ $82 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 Action of the Year? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $354.35 · official $352.52 (match) · 3500 history records