Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B6 0xb6fc…b24e sports 1638 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,819 (+12%) realized +$5,827 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%706W / 926L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day44.1pace
Fees−$770est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$1,111
other 4% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 +3.7% -6.2% 42% 42% -1.2%
≤30d 860 +6.0% -4.1% 44% 43% -7.1%
≤90d 1632 +4.1% -5.9% 43% 43% -7.6%
all 1632 +4.1% -5.9% 43% 43% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 43% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -16.5%
15% -23.1% 41% -24.5%
20% -30.6% 39% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized+$5,827
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses706 / 926
Est. fees paid−$770
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1632 / 1638
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ 60¢ $133 $151 +$18 (+13%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 53¢ 100¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+89%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner 4ikibamboni 47¢ 100¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+113%)
ITF Monastir: Tanisha Kashyap vs Mariia Nozdrachova Mariia Nozdrachova 19¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+426%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina Mariya Dobreva 26¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $252 +$245 +98%
ITF Constanta: Nicolas Garcia Longo vs Rares Teodor Pieleanu Jun 17 $16 +$28 +179%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $42 +$58 +140%
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic Jun 17 $33 +$27 +83%
ITF Saarlouis: David Fix vs Pieter De Lange Jun 17 $23 −$22 -99%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Jun 17 $125 +$126 +101%
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul Jun 17 $135 −$133 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$240 +442%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $127 +$123 +97%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $120 −$118 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $117 −$115 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $114 +$135 +119%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $65 +$95 +146%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $122 +$133 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $72 −$70 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $167 −$165 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$321 +626%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Nefve vs. Wolf: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $77 −$76 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $18 +$8 +42%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $59 −$58 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $54 +$73 +137%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
ITF Blois: Astrid Cirotte vs Despina Papamichail Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta Jun 16 $85 −$83 -98%
ITF Monastir: Mathieu Scaglia vs Nick Beamish Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Mensik vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Dev Javia vs Maxim Shin Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Parma: Oriol Roca Batalla vs Francesco Passaro Jun 16 $6 +$5 +76%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$33 +65%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $75 −$74 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $120 +$131 +109%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $97 −$96 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $140 +$142 +102%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $64 +$39 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $125 +$126 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $45 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $135 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 49¢ $125 1h
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel BUY Gerard Campana Lee 51¢ $127 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 47¢ $7 2h
ITF Mohammedia: Oceane Babel vs Martina Colmegna BUY Oceane Babel 44¢ $19 2h
ITF Constanta: Nicolas Garcia Longo vs Rares Teodor Pieleanu BUY Nicolas Garcia Longo 35¢ $16 3h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 41¢ $42 5h
ITF Saarlouis: David Fix vs Pieter De Lange BUY David Fix 55¢ $23 6h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Ram/Salisbury vs Arevalo/Pavic BUY Ram/Salisbury 39¢ $100 6h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Vuk Radjenovic 52¢ $16 7h
ITF Monastir: Tanisha Kashyap vs Mariia Nozdrachova BUY Mariia Nozdrachova 19¢ $1 7h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 53¢ $16 7h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Nikola Matovic BUY Vuk Radjenovic 56¢ $17 7h
ITF Mohammedia: Liel Marlies Rothensteiner vs Yasmine Douyeb BUY Yasmine Douyeb 7¢ $6 7h
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina BUY Mariya Dobreva 26¢ $8 8h
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major BUY Aron Janos Major 21¢ $2 9h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Saoirse Breen 49¢ $125 10h
ITF Maanshan: Sheng Tang vs Siwanat Auytayakul BUY Sheng Tang 53¢ $135 11h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 48¢ $4 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 32¢ $82 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 18¢ $54 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $127 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 47¢ $120 14h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 45¢ $117 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 45¢ $114 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $4 17h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $49 17h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $65 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 42¢ $107 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.54 · official $201.54 (match) · 3500 history records