Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B7
0xb701…8c1b
weather · 817 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$8 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$240
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses670 / 119
Open positions28
Markets (closed)789 / 817
History coverage30d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day85.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 28 History 789 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$14
14 days−$8
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? No 95¢ 96¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? No 39¢ 40¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? No 87¢ 92¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? No 88¢ 90¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 85¢ 82¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 78¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 97¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 85¢ 83¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? No 75¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 87¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? No 99¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 82¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? No 88¢ 95¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? No 43¢ 46¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? No 82¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? No 95¢ 94¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 96¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 +$4 +23%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $18 +$7 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on June 8? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $3 +$2 +77%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $6 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 09 $12 +$5 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$4 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 7? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 08 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 08 $15 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $15 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 7? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 43¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 86°F or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 38¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 37¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 33¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 37% -11.1%
≤30d 789 +0.4% -9.2% 85% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 789 +0.4% -9.2% 85% 33% -9.8%
all 789 +0.4% -9.2% 85% 33% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 33% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 18% -18.4%
15% -25.8% 8% -26.3%
20% -33.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.67 · official $239.67 (match) · 3500 history records