Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb701…5f0e sports 101 markets active 4h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$351 (+17%) realized +$359 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%32W / 59L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$496
14 days+$368
30 days+$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$182
other 27% +$113
crypto 16% +$26
tech 1% −$30
world 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +14.6% +3.7% 39% 38% +21.2%
≤30d 91 +2.1% -7.7% 35% 34% +7.5%
≤90d 91 +2.1% -7.7% 35% 34% +7.5%
all 91 +2.1% -7.7% 35% 34% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 34% +7.5%
10% -16.5% 33% -2.8%
15% -24.6% 31% -12.1%
20% -32.0% 29% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$11 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$359
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses32 / 59
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions7
Markets (closed)91 / 101
History coverage22d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 100¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+64%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Total Corners Odd or Even? Odd 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Over 52¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$47 +229%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$12 +49%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $8 −$7 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$3 +112%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 +$5 +27%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +46%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +118%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$30 +149%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $142 +$30 +21%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$23 -75%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $24 −$17 -74%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$6 -41%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $22 −$16 -72%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 +$31 +123%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$32 +170%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$8 -49%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $190 +$122 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $101 −$10 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$5 +32%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $117 +$105 +89%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $24 +$159 +673%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $48 −$32 -66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $81 +$87 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$28 -54%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 12 $13 −$4 -33%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 4h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 5h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $15 5h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $68 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Odd 49¢ $5 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Total Corners Odd or Even? SELL Even 49¢ $9 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $10 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Even 51¢ $10 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $8 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $5 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 6h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $7 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $12 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 87¢ $9 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $6 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $3 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 8h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 8h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $41 8h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 10h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 10h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 11h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 11h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 11h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $22 11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $5 15h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.48 · official $158.48 (match) · 204 history records