Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb703…e419 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$3
other 20% $0
politics 18% $0
tech 7% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 12 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 12 -1.9% -11.2% 25% 0% -10.2%
all 36 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage325d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $53 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $37 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $35 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Aug 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 05 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 05 $48 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 31 $48 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 31 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 30 $49 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 30 $9 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 30 $49 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 29 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $30 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $37 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 2d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $18 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $18 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $36 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $12 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $12 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 25d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $5 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $5 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $13 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $22 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $32 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $35 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $29 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $14 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.49 · official $33.49 (match) · 114 history records