Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B7 0xb706…b4e4 crypto 1053 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$208 (-2%) realized −$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%844W / 209L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$149
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$179
sports 4% +$85
other 4% −$41
world 0% −$26
weather 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.4% -20.8% 43% 43% -9.5%
≤30d 365 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 6% -10.5%
≤90d 1005 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 40% -11.2%
all 1053 -1.6% -10.9% 80% 40% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 40% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 12% -19.6%
15% -27.2% 6% -27.3%
20% -34.4% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses844 / 209
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1053 / 1053
History coverage96d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1053 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$4 -9%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$67 +132%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$63 +123%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$26 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 +$10 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$17 -82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $25 +$6 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $116 −$114 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$11 +160%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $109 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $22 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 4h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $47 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $118 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $51 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 89¢ $114 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $51 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $4 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 76¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $25 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $25 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $104 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $11 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2779 history records