Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb707…fc32 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$409 (+1%) realized +$408 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%62W / 6L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$828per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$23
14 days+$31
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$151
economics 10% +$160
finance 5% +$9
politics 3% +$23
other 1% +$61
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +5.3% -4.8% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 6 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 11 +2.3% -7.4% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 68 +2.3% -7.4% 91% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 10% -8.9%
10% -16.3% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.4% 1% -25.6%
20% -31.8% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$832) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.76 per $1 lost it wins $7.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$1,148
Realized+$408
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses62 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 71
History coverage260d
Avg bet$828
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $680 $679 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $319 $320 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $148 $149 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $283 +$11 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 Jun 18 $80 +$7 +9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $191 +$5 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $831 +$8 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 09 $388 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 29 $268 +$16 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $829 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 06 $822 +$2 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 26 $1,089 +$6 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 15 $1,081 +$9 +1%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $217 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $885 −$22 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 14 $903 −$18 -2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 10 $909 −$6 -1%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 07 $202 +$15 +8%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 02 $956 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 27 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 19 $748 +$8 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 03 $832 +$116 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $158 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 27 $158 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $126 +$32 +25%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $828 +$4 +0%
Will Consensys IPO by December 31 2025? Jan 04 $28 +$1 +3%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 04 $135 +$10 +8%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Jan 04 $6 +$1 +18%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 02 $122 +$6 +5%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jan 01 $508 +$12 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $239 +$32 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $209 +$28 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $99 +$6 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 19 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 19 $95 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 14 $98 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 14 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Aztec launch a token in 2025? Nov 13 $10 +$1 +7%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Nov 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12? Nov 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 3? Nov 03 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $697 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on November 2? Nov 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 2? Nov 03 $752 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 31 $1,515 +$21 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $296 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $294 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $187 12h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $24 12h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $48 12h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $24 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 97¢ $48 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 97¢ $31 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 97¢ $8 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $195 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY No 88¢ $80 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $149 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $191 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $421 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $319 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $210 11d
Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $384 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $215 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $90 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $175 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $4 16d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $214 20d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $174 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $104 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $284 24d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $831 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $831 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $829 48d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? BUY No 100¢ $822 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,148.18 · official $1,148.18 (match) · 178 history records