Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B7 0xb70c…34ca sports 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,517 (-2%) realized −$1,461 · open −$2,056
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate78%100W / 28L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,141per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$11,081now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,121
7 days−$1,896
14 days−$1,286
30 days−$1,286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$30
other 13% −$2,394
crypto 1% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.8% -8.8% 72% 56% -19.5%
≤30d 25 +1.4% -8.2% 76% 56% -14.4%
≤90d 75 +1.4% -8.3% 76% 56% -20.0%
all 128 +3.1% -6.7% 78% 60% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 60% -9.2%
10% -15.6% 40% -17.9%
15% -23.8% 25% -25.8%
20% -31.2% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$852) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$666 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$11,081
Realized−$1,461
Unrealized−$2,056
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses100 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage114d
Avg bet$1,141
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $12,800 $10,589 −$2,211 (-17%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $337 $492 +$155 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2,540 +$912 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $702 +$59 +8%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $345 +$150 +44%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $112 −$82 -73%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,714 +$647 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $1,505 +$171 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $166 −$165 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,719 +$345 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $601 −$600 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $244 +$15 +6%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $38 +$31 +83%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$31 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,603 +$90 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $714 −$710 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $1,514 +$691 +46%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $46 +$46 +101%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,566 −$3,536 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,456 +$291 +8%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2,006 +$216 +11%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $157 +$76 +49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $733 +$13 +2%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $226 +$46 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $47 +$15 +32%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions Apr 28 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 05 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 05 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $6,130 −$6,054 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $656 +$147 +22%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 05 $30 +$25 +82%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $30 +$15 +52%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 05 $200 +$29 +14%
Nanjing Monkey King vs. Jiangsu Dragons Apr 04 $100 +$29 +29%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 04 $140 −$2 -1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $155 +$53 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $20 +$19 +97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $160 +$49 +30%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $538 +$67 +12%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 04 $627 +$81 +13%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $1,254 −$1,013 -81%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs MVK Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 03 $130 −$129 -99%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $47 +$29 +62%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $173 +$149 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2,540 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $172 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $68 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $702 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 69¢ $345 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1,714 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $166 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $29 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $1,505 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 61¢ $83 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1,709 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $601 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $714 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $244 6d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $38 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,603 6d
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) BUY LOS 61¢ $50 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 80¢ $795 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $1,257 7d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 49¢ $46 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $1,514 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 47¢ $49 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 68¢ $1,514 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $480 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $2,975 8d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $2,006 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,081.06 · official $11,080.81 (match) · 329 history records