Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B7 0xb70d…f077 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$11 (+5%) realized +$11 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate67%10W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day16.5pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	33%	-18.4%
≤30d	15	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	33%	-18.4%
≤90d	15	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	33%	-18.4%
all	15	-6.6%	-15.5%	67%	33%	-18.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.5%	33%	-18.4%
10%	-23.6%	13%	-26.2%
15%	-31.0%	13%	-33.3%
20%	-37.7%	7%	-39.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.43 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses10 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)15 / 16

History coverage2d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day16.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	84¢	$26	$26	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$53	−$3	-7%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$6	−$6	-93%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$24	−$18	-74%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$24	+$1	+4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 23	$25	−$2	-6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$23	+$2	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$16	+$8	+51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$3	+$1	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Jun 21	$2	$0	+6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 21	$2	$0	+21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$4	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	Jun 21	$4	$0	+10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	Jun 21	$4	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 21	$2	$0	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 21	$2	$0	+11%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$26	1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	51¢	$26	1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	4¢	$0	2h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	51¢	$6	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	11¢	$6	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	40¢	$24	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	95¢	$24	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	55¢	$24	5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	56¢	$25	5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$28	9h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$23	11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	51¢	$23	11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$25	11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$25	11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	BUY Down	93¢	$2	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$2	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$2	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$5	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$5	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$5	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	SELL Down	100¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$2	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$2	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	SELL Down	69¢	$2	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$2	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.26 · official $26.26 (match) · 40 history records